Optimal prediction under LINLIN loss: Empirical evidence

I compare the forecasts of returns from the mean predictor (optimal under MSE), with the pseudo-optimal and optimal predictor for an asymmetric loss function under the assumption that agents have an asymmetric LINLIN loss function. The results strongly suggest not using the conditional mean predictor under conditions of asymmetry. In general, forecasts can be improved by the use of optimal predictor rather than the pseudo-optimal predictor, suggesting that the loss reduction from using the optimal predictor can actually be important for practitioners as well.     

Edith Penrose's (1959) Contributions to the Resource-based View of Strategic Management

ABSTRACT We argue that Rugman and Verbeke (2002 ) underestimate the importance of Penrose's (1959 ) contributions to the modern resource‐based view of the firm. In particular, we take issue with Rugman and Verbeke's (2002 ) arguments concerning Penrose's (1959 ) contributions to our knowledge of: (1) the creation of competitive advantage, (2) sustaining competitive advantage, (3) isolating mechanisms, and (4) competitive advantage and economic rents. In our response, we show that Penrose (1959 ) has both directly and indirectly influenced the modern resource‐based view of strategic management.     

Modellierungsansätze in der Warenkorbanalyse im Überblick

Zusammenfassung Ein Großteil der Handelsunternehmen versucht mittlerweile, Kunden über Kundenkartenprogramme und die damit verbundenen Vorteile an sich zu binden. Der Handel kann dadurch auf große Datenmengen über die Kaufhistorie seiner Kunden zurückgreifen. Die Antworten auf strategische Fragestellungen, wie beispielsweise die Kundenbindung, sollen zu einer nachhaltigen Weiterentwicklung jedes einzelnen Kunden führen. Für die hier skizzierte Anwendung im Handel wird in der Regel mit der sogenannten Warenkorbanalyse gearbeitet. Diese Methode beinhaltet die Untersuchung der Zusammensetzung eines Warenkorbs, der alle von einem Konsumenten zur gleichen Zeit am gleichen Ort erworbenen Güter umfasst. Dabei wird angenommen, dass die Kaufentscheidungen in den Kategorien nicht unabhängig getroffen werden, sondern über die Kategorien hinweg voneinander abhängen. Bei der Modellierung von Kaufwahrscheinlichkeiten müssen diese Abhängigkeiten berücksichtigt werden, um geeignete Marketingstrategien ableiten zu können. Dieser Artikel gibt einen Überblick über bestehende Veröffentlichungen im Bereich der Verbundanalyse. Die relevante Literatur wird in explorative und explanative Modelle gegliedert, wobei der Schwerpunkt dieses Artikels auf den explanativen Modellen liegt. Komplementarität, Heterogenität und Mitnahmeeffekte werden als Bestimmungsfaktoren des Verbundkaufs identifiziert.      

How do interdependencies among human‐capital deployment,development, and diversification strategies affect firms' financial performance?

Using key insights from the resource‐based view of the firm, we develop and test a theory of how firms can successfully deploy and develop their strategic human assets while managing the trade‐offs in their service and geographical diversification strategies. In a sample of large law firms we find that, even though firms profit from expert human‐capital leveraging strategy and service and geographical diversification strategies individually, pursuing these strategies simultaneously at high levels produces negative interaction effects on firm profitability. In addition, the internally developed, firm‐specific associate human capital strategically fits better with high levels of expert human‐capital leveraging. While lateral hiring helps firms build new knowledge bases and take advantage of growth opportunities, pursuing high levels of both expert human‐capital leveraging and lateral hiring of associates results in lower profitability. To fully capture the economic benefits from strategies of diversification, human‐capital leveraging and lateral hiring, firms should understand and manage the complex interdependencies among multiple levels of strategy. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Japanese foreign exchange intervention and the yen-to-dollar exchange rate: A simultaneous equations approach using realized volatility

We use realized volatility to study the influence of Japanese central bank interventions on the yen-to-dollar exchange rate. A system of equations for returns, logarithmic realized volatility, and interventions provides a comprehensive view on the problem without endogeneity bias, unlike earlier latent variable specifications. We find that during the period 1991 through 1995, interventions of the Japanese monetary authorities could not move the yen-to-dollar rate into the desired direction. We measure an increase in volatility associated with interventions. During the period 1995 through 1998, the estimations are consistent with interventions that successfully influenced returns. After 1998 up to the last intervention episode in 2004, interventions did not have a significant impact on returns but reduced realized exchange rate volatility.     

Factors related with unintentional injuries in children with newly diagnosed attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder

The aim of the present study was to investigate the factors associated with unintentional injury in children newly diagnosed with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). One thousand four hundred and thirty children between the ages of 6 and 18 who were diagnosed with ADHD for the first time in child psychiatry outpatient clinics were included in the present study. The socio-demographic information of the children, their developmental histories, chronic physical health conditions, comorbid psychiatric disorders, and information obtained via the Turgay DSM-IV-based Child and Adolescent Disorders Screening and Rating Scale were examined retrospectively. It was determined that 12.8% of the children (n = 183) experienced unintentional injury. It was established that age, male gender, disruptive behavioural problems, and low education levels among mothers were predictive of unintentional injuries. The results of the present study suggest that behavioural problems accompanying ADHD and comorbid psychiatric disorders are important in terms of unintentional injuries.